Should Canada Be Preparing for a Surge of Refugees from the United States?

While Canada has long been a destination for refugees fleeing war-torn regions, a more complex and sensitive question is emerging: should Canada prepare for a significant increase in refugee claimants coming from the United States?

A Question That Once Seemed Unthinkable

Traditionally, the U.S. has been viewed as a safe and democratic country. Under the Canada–U.S. Safe Third Country Agreement (STCA), refugee claimants are generally required to request protection in the first safe country they arrive in—either the U.S. or Canada. This agreement is rooted in the assumption that both countries offer fair and effective refugee protection systems.

However, in recent years, there has been growing debate about whether the U.S. remains a "safe third country" for everyone. Human rights organizations have raised alarms over immigration detention conditions, deportations without due process, and the treatment of vulnerable groups, including LGBTQ+ individuals, racial minorities, and political dissidents.

Political Climate and the Threat of Persecution

There is growing anecdotal evidence of U.S. residents attempting to enter Canada irregularly through border crossings like Roxham Road in Quebec, driven by fears of persecution or deportation under increasingly stringent immigration policies.

Legal Precedents and Humanitarian Responsibilities

In a landmark decision in 2023, the Supreme Court of Canada upheld the STCA but also recognized that refugee claimants must have access to a fair and humane process. If systemic issues in the U.S. immigration system worsen, Canada may be compelled—morally and legally—to reassess the agreement or expand exemptions.

Canada’s international obligations under the 1951 Refugee Convention and its Charter of Rights and Freedoms may require it to consider individual claims from people who can demonstrate a well-founded fear of persecution—even if that persecution originates from within a country historically considered “safe.”

Capacity and Preparedness

Canada has the infrastructure to manage refugee claimants, but a sudden influx from the U.S. would test the limits of current systems. Legal aid programs, shelters, and community integration services are already stretched thin. Border communities would likely be first to feel the strain.

To prepare, Canada may need to:

- Reassess the Safe Third Country Agreement in light of evolving conditions in the U.S.

- Increase funding for refugee determination processes and settlement services.

- Strengthen community-based support systems in high-entry zones.

Final Thoughts

While a mass migration from the U.S. may seem improbable, it is no longer impossible. History has shown that political shifts can rapidly change migration flows. Canada must remain vigilant and compassionate, ensuring that its policies and infrastructure are robust enough to respond to emerging humanitarian needs—even when they originate from an unexpected source.